24 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1411
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skorski
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1401
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H24-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.