24 Jul · 17:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1403
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trela
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1410
FormWLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Kowalczyk covers set handicap as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 68% · 1.48· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H17-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.