24 Jul · 19:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MN
🇵🇱Michal Natkaniec
ELO 1426
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wolny
MW
🇵🇱Michal Wolny
ELO 1443
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Wolny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H12-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.