24 Jul · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1411
FormWLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Wnek
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1412
FormLWWWL
50%
50%
🌟Wnek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (45)
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+1
H2H11-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.