24 Jul · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1408
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fira
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1380
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
🌟Ruszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 65% (31)
Fair odds · Fira
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H8-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.