24 Jul · 23:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1380
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wrobel
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1399
FormLLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Wrobel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (19)
Fair odds · Wrobel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H16-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.