25 Jul · 00:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1402
FormLWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wnek
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1410
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
🌟Wnek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (45)
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H31-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.