25 Jul · 01:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MN
🇵🇱Michal Natkaniec
ELO 1428
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Wolny
MW
🇵🇱Michal Wolny
ELO 1430
FormLLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Wolny
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 35% · 2.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H12-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.