25 Jul · 01:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1387
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wrobel
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1402
FormLWLLW
48%
52%
🌟Wrobel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (19)
Fair odds · Wrobel
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 40% · 2.52· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H17-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.