25 Jul · 01:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1423
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Fira
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1403
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
🌟Ruszkiewicz covers set handicap as underdog 65% (31)
Fair odds · Fira
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H9-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.