25 Jul · 02:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1397
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wrobel
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1402
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
🌟Wrobel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (19)
Fair odds · Wrobel
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H12-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.