25 Jul · 03:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1389
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trela
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1383
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Trela
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 27% · 3.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H44-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.