25 Jul · 02:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1414
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wnek
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1383
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
🌟Wnek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (45)
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H36-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.