25 Jul · 05:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1417
FormWLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Fira
RW
🇵🇱Roman Wiza
ELO 1333
FormWLLLW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Fira
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H45-44
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (45-44)