25 Jul · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1428
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1463
FormLLLLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Urban🌟Baron rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (46)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 47% · 2.11· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H48-52
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.