25 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MZ
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1282
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rolak
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1304
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
🌟Rolak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (24)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.