25 Jul · 07:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1497
FormWLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Pytlas
WP
🇵🇱Wojciech Pytlas
ELO 1552
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Pytlas
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H10-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-9)