25 Jul · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1432
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Krupa
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1493
FormLWLWW
43%
57%
🌟Urban goes over total as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)