25 Jul · 08:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1392
FormWLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Malinowski
RM
🇵🇱Radoslaw Malinowski
ELO 1460
FormWWLLL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Malinowski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)