25 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1464
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Krupa
SK
🇵🇱Sebastian Krupa
ELO 1486
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
🌟Baron covers set handicap as underdog 64% (36)
Fair odds · Krupa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H3-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.