25 Jul · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1483
FormLWLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Morawiec
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1398
FormLLWWL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Morawiec
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+85
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)