25 Jul · 09:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1504
FormLWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1564
FormWLWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+60
H2H9-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-7)