25 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1386
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Piotrowski
TP
🇵🇱Tadeusz Piotrowski
ELO 1417
FormWWLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Piotrowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.