25 Jul · 13:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1290
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wisniewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1302
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H64-52
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.