25 Jul · 15:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MZ
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1273
FormLWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Szoltysek
AS
🇵🇱Artur Szoltysek
ELO 1354
FormLLWLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Szoltysek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+81
H2H17-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-15)