25 Jul · 15:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1506
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1554
FormLLWWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H10-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-7)