25 Jul · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RW
🇵🇱Rafal Wojcik
ELO 1428
FormLWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Morawiec
DM
🇵🇱Daniel Morawiec
ELO 1490
FormWWLLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Morawiec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~81 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+62
H2H28-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-15)