25 Jul · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1401
FormWWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Misiak
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1314
FormWWLWL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~80 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+87
H2H4-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-3)