25 Jul · 18:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1662
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Oracz
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1674
FormWWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H20-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.