25 Jul · 22:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1364
FormLLWLL
76%Win chancemodel fair 1.32Guzik
MG
🇵🇱Michal Guzik
ELO 1619
FormWLLWW
24%
76%
Fair odds · Guzik
Model 76% · 1.32vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 60%Total ~75 pts
0-3
33%
1-3
27%
2-3
16%
3-2
10%
3-1
9%
Elo Gap+255
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+255)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)