26 Jul · 00:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Robert Szymik
ELO 1478
FormWLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Szymik
DF
🇵🇱Damian Fira
ELO 1394
FormLLLWL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Szymik
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H41-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-25)