26 Jul · 00:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1683
FormWWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Warzecha
MG
🇵🇱Michal Guzik
ELO 1615
FormLWWLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Warzecha
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H0-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)