26 Jul · 03:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1336
FormLLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sulkowski
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1287
FormLWLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H13-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-8)