26 Jul · 04:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JO
🇵🇱Jacek Oracz
ELO 1669
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Warzecha
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1690
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Warzecha
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H14-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.