26 Jul · 04:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1517
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Skorupa
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1527
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🌟Skorupa goes over total as favourite 62% (32)
Fair odds · Skorupa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H11-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.