26 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1423
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sinicki
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1430
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Sinicki
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.