26 Jul · 08:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1421
FormLLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Mleczko
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1475
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
🌟Mleczko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (24)
Fair odds · Mleczko
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H10-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-8)