26 Jul · 09:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1503
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1558
FormWWLWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H30-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-15)