26 Jul · 09:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1382
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Jesiek
JJ
🇵🇱Jakub Jesiek
ELO 1468
FormWWWWL
41%
59%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Jesiek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~81 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+86
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)