26 Jul · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Wozniak
ELO 1431
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Wozniak
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1429
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Wozniak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H6-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.