26 Jul · 11:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1513
FormWLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Adamus
PP
🇵🇱Piotr Przewlocki
ELO 1449
FormWLLWW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Przewlocki🌟Przewlocki goes over total as underdog 72% (46)
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H23-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-19)