26 Jul · 10:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RA
🇵🇱Rafal Adach
ELO 1368
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Nowak
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1369
FormLLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Nowak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H6-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.