26 Jul · 12:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nosiadek
ELO 1379
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Nosiadek
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1341
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Nosiadek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.