26 Jul · 12:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1382
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Staniszewski
WS
🇵🇱Waclaw Suchecki
ELO 1375
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Staniszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.