26 Jul · 14:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1447
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lilien
MS
🇵🇱Maciej Sinicki
ELO 1425
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.