26 Jul · 15:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1498
FormLLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1550
FormWWLLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+52
H2H30-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-16)