26 Jul · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1340
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Staniszewski
PS
🇵🇱Piotr Staniszewski
ELO 1367
FormLLWLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Staniszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H26-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.