26 Jul · 15:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Mleczko
ELO 1492
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mleczko
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1455
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
🌟Mleczko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (24)
Fair odds · Mleczko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 24% · 4.20· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+37
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.