26 Jul · 18:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1394
FormWLLLL
78%Win chancemodel fair 1.28Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1679
FormWLWLW
22%
78%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (41)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 78% · 1.28vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 62%Total ~75 pts
0-3
34%
1-3
28%
2-3
16%
3-2
9%
3-1
8%
Elo Gap+285
H2H50-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+285)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (50-14)