26 Jul · 18:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1644
FormWLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Rutkowski
MR
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1725
FormWLLWW
41%
59%
🌟Kapik covers set handicap as underdog 69% (125)
Fair odds · Rutkowski
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+81
H2H80-68
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (80-68)